New COVID-19 cases have not plateaued – they are accelerating. And socio-economic effects, which mirror the virus with a lag of months and years, are accelerating as well.
A study conducted with the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver maps out three different ‘futures’ to assess potential COVID-19 recovery trajectories.
Under a ‘COVID Baseline’ scenario, 44 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 as a result of the pandemic. Uncertainties are manifold and a ‘High Damage’ scenario could push an additional 207 million people into extreme poverty, or 251 million people in total, taking into account the ‘COVID Baseline’ trajectory.